Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Silver Price Bottom

It looks like the silver price has bottomed right around here:

Silver put in a double top. The first top in the first week of March. The second top in the second week of March. Then, silver went down 4 days in a row, gapping down on the last day. It is now into a good support level around 17. The odds are really good that silver's move to the down side is basically over.


Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002

"The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. [er... closer to $1,000] Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

For some fun:

"Meeting of the

Exchange Stabilization Fund

September 2, 2006

[Unauthorized, Unredacted and Apocryphal]



The more there is of something, the less it is worth. So, naturally, someone will want more USD for the same weight of silver (gold, loaf of bread, gallon of milk, or any other thing of intrinsic value). Holding silver and gold is a no brainer; with the Fed working with "money" pumps like these, no need to worry about the USD price of silver. It's going right back up. It looks like the bottom is right around this level.
"What? Me worry?" - Alfred E. Newman

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