Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Exellent risk/reward point - Part 2

Early last week, the USD made it up to about 85.5, a 50% Fib upward retracement level working from the USD's July high of about 90.5. On top of that, the USD put in an end of upward trend signal of 4 days in a row completed on Monday of last week. Then, for 3 more days (for a total of 4 tries) it tried to go above that level but could not do it. If I was long the USD, I would be awfully worried. I would get out of my long dollar postion. Gold and silver move inversely to the dollar. So this is an excellent risk/reward ratio point. The seat of my pants say that the dollar topped out last week.

Gold and silver stocks and stock indexes are saying to me the same thing breaking up through significant downtrend lines.

Yesterday, gold completed a 4 up days in a row end of downward trend signal. Previous to that signal it made a 4 down days in a row end of downward trend signal. That is 2 confirming end of trend signals. The second signal forming immediately after the first signal. It also broke up through its down trend line. Pretty good!

Yesterday, silver completed a 4 up days in a row end of downward trend signal with gusto, verve, vigor, pizzaz, style. It also not only broke up through its down trend line, but up through a head and shoulders neckline. Pretty good!

It's time to load the boat, the dinghy and the life raft with gold and silver and related things.

"A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself"
- Jesse Livermore

Especially in an ambiguous situation, the tendency for everyone to be looking to see what everyone else is doing can lead to a fascinating phenomenon called "pluralistic ignorance".
- Robert Cialdini, author of Influence - The Psychology Of Persuasion