Monday, October 17, 2005

USD, Gold, Silver, Notes and Bonds

It looks to me that the USD is putting in about a 3 1/2 months long double top:
A 2 year long monthly USD bar chart

Now, if we take a look at a:
6 month long daily USD bar chart
we can see the right hand top in more detail. It looks like the right hand top is being formed by a mini double top. That last 5 week or so uptrend ended with a 2b topping signal. And the last mini 6 day uptrend has already ended with a 2b topping signal with today's price action. Very interesting. The USD is looking real toppy here, that the USD's rally that started at the beginning of this year is over.

Gold is looking healthy but it gapped up today and that gap could get filled.

Silver on the other hand can move independently from gold. It still has not broken its upward trend line that started at the end of August like gold did. True, it went up 5 days in a row just recently but Friday's outside day tends to negate that. I would say that silver is doing just fine.

US Treasury notes and bonds (indicators of rising prices and increasing "money" supplies) are both down now 5 days in a row and could take a rest from going down at this point. But they both convincingly broke through their lows of 10 weeks ago.
A six month chart of the notes
A six month chart of the bonds

I think gold and silver are going to have winds blowing at their backs shortly.

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