Sunday, November 18, 2007

US Debt and US Banks

Here are some ominous US debt and US bank numbers and time periods:


The US Treasury debt went above $9 trillion on November 7, 2007, 5 weeks after Congress raised the US Treasury debt ceiling. The new ceiling is $9.815 trillion.

This is the 5th increase since the current US president took office in January, 2001.

Back then, US debt was $5.6 trillion.

Do you wish you could take on debt at that rate *and* have the means to create out of thin air that which is required to pay the interest and principle? That is what is going on for the US as a whole, but it will not last. Sooner or later, sellers want real value for their goods and services. Look for goods on US suppliers and store shelves to start dissapearing. The US does not manufacture anywhere near what it used to.

Another reason for shelf inventories to decline is less internal US demand for goods and services due to US consumers being less able to take on more debt, just to maintain current living standards since the US is not creating enough value to pay for their current standard of living, level of spending. The US has to borrow, from the rest of the world, over $2 billion a day to maintain it.

Consumers are hitting their debt ceiling:

Total US debt (consumer) increases:
August + $15.41 Billion
September + $3.75 Billion


The latest on US banks:

Total US mortgage loans for 2006 was $10.9 trillion (American Mortgage Bankers Association of Washington).

Composition of that debt:

About $6 trillion of it is now CDOs

About $1.5 is subprime
About $1 is Alt-A
About $1.5 is adjustable rate

US bank debt got too big and too risky.
Just for starters, banks are going to take a $1 trillion hit to equity/assets?


How is business doing in the US?

Commercial mortgage debt for October was $8.6 billion.
The monthly average over the last 9 months was about $66 billion (Thomson Financial).
US business gets what is going on in the US. For all practical purposes, they have stopped taking on more debt (read no more new capital needed). The economic contraction is happening fast.


Be your own banker. Store value in stuff, or equity in stuff (paper share certificates in your own hands), or even paper government fiat tokens. Have you been keeping track of the price of lead since 6 years ago?

Yes, gold and silver is good stuff, too.

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