Saturday, November 06, 2004


Early, early Wednesday morning the FX market decided that
Bush had won the election and that this was particularly bad
news for the world, let alone the US and most Americans. It
drove the USD down a dollar in the next 12 hours. Several days
later I would guess that almost no Americans know this.

Friday was a bearish outside day for the USD.
Friday was a bullish outside day for gold.
Friday, silver missed a bullish outside day by a tad.

The USD Index's 85 level of support only supported the USD for
seven days.
That's not much considering it was major support established
by the February bottom.

Next major support is the 80+ level. After that support is at
78. After 78? There isn't any. The Index has never been that
low before. The last measured move indicates the USD going
down to around 50+. The USD is saying that the US is going
into a major economic decline and therefore a major political
and military decline. Unfortunately it appears to me that most
Americans haven't a clue as to what they are facing, in the
near term as well as the long term.

What is needed now is a 'castpoint to try to determine when
the USD, as we currently know it, ceases to exist. There should
be big bucks to be made off of a 'castpoint with this objective.
If you don't know what a 'castpoint is, read Mark Stiegler's
Earthweb. What a neat use for a Ricardian contract.

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