Friday, November 26, 2004

The Dow and the Dollar

Last Thursday the Dow topped out, at least temporarily. On Friday it went back down below the previous low with gusto. That was a 2-b end of upward trend signal. It had 4 days to do it but did it on the first day. Makes sense after about a 10% move up in about a month. Plus, it's just plain 'ol outrageously expensive. Prices have moved up since then, but not above the last high. That's normal.

Thursday the USD went down for a fifth day in a row. Today, Friday, it went down more and then bounced up almost a dollar. Makes sense since it was down almost to the 1995 low which is a major support level. So, those two points say that it could be a little while till the USD breaks down through the last support level and heads down into unknown territory.

So, US stocks could be topping out now for a long long time. Same goes for US bonds. Same goes for US real estate from what I can see. These three apparent topping items appear related to the USD trying to break down into new low territory. Makes sense to me. Weird though that it takes something big time significant like the USD at just about a new historic low point to top out these substantial big rallies in long term bear markets. What were these rallies waiting for? I guess something they couldn't argue with. It also seems to me that almost no Americans have a clue as to what's happening and what they are facing. It's the most amazing thing to watch.

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