Friday, December 03, 2004

A Little Change in the Wind

Last Friday, the dollar made 6 down days in a row. An end of downward trend signal. That one failed. Yesterday, Thursday a 2-b signal end of downward trend signal was generated. It is oversold, so we could have a pause to the downside in the USD.

Yesterday gold generated a 2-b end of upward trend signal. It is overbought.

Silver? No signals.

Thursday, bonds were down 6 days in a row which in this case is not a signal but bonds could go up here just a bit. Bond's downward sloping neckline just above these prices offer resistance to significant upward movement of bond prices.

The HUI is down 4 days in a row. Not a signal. It's already formed an upside down head and shoulders basing formation over the course of the last year or so. But still, I don't expect a break out into new high territory in the next few days considering what the dollar and gold are doing.

The Dow made it back up to the top of its 2-b formation. That 2-b might fail. It did intraday, but not on a closing bases. We'll see.

There could be a short term correction in current directions of the dollar and gold since general US equities could move up a bit from here. Or general US equities could move up from here because of the action in the USD and gold. I can't know where the real cause(s) and affect(s) are.

This all could be just a matter of days/weeks and should be of interest to only traders. Let me define my terms:
Trading: taking a position for days to weeks.
Speculating: taking a position for weeks to months.
Investing: taking a position for months to years.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people." - H.L. Mencken (1880 - 1956)

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