Thursday, December 09, 2004

The USD Trend Line (part 2)

First, the USD makes a 6 down days in a row end of downward trend signal. Then four days later it makes a 2-b end of trend signal. Then four days later, yesterday, it makes another one. This one probably sticks since the USD broke above its short term downtrend line that started at the beginning of October with big time gusto. So, what is it going to do next? Move up? It can but it doesn't have to. It can move roughly sideways, too. This is my bet since it produced a dead cat bounce after going below the 1995 low, and since it went above the 1995 low just for a short period yesterday. How long can it move sideways? I don't know but it has serious resistance just above where it is now. The 1995 low and the lowest neckline. This reaction/correction could last a week or two or three rather than months like it did the last time.

Gold came down real close to its major highly supportive uptrend line. Since I don't expect the dollar to go up from here much, that should be about it for gold to the downside. After all gold had gone up out of its shortest term channel. Something was bound to happen.

Same goes for silver. It came down real close to its major French curve/hyperbolic uptrend line.

In other words, we got a real good correction in gold and silver out of the way real fast. Basically finished business.

The other thing that's immediately bullish for gold and silver is that the shares acted real strong yesterday as the metals were taking big time dives. They acted exactly the opposite of how they have been acting these last few weeks. 2005 should see the opposite, volatility to the upside.

In other words, get crazy. Go against the crowd. Buy *today*.

"To be ignorant of what happened before you were born is to be ever a child."

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Do you think the gold price will go up on Monday?

The gold price went down for the last few days and reached the long term upward trend line on Friday.