Saturday, April 23, 2005

Showdown - Part II

Dan Norcini's analysis of the Comex's COT report, including positon total charts, is now public at:
Dan's report on's site

Ted Butler, perhaps the world's formost expert on the silver market, also noticed this anomaly in the COT reports for both gold and silver:
"The latest Commitment of Traders Report (COT) in gold has generated great interest, and for good reason. The numbers are out of line with any time in the past. You may recall, that a few weeks ago, I actually labeled the gold COTs as a mistake, so unusual were the numbers. The CFTC assured me there was no mistake. After thinking it over for a while, I now conclude that they are right and I was wrong. I now feel that the report reflects positions correctly. But the numbers are still so out of line with normal historical patterns, that an explanation is called for."

Here is the link to his latest report on the unusual COT numbers:
Ted Butler's April 19th report

Basically the US government and it's cronies met a supply of entities willing to step up and place long bets in the futures gold and silver markets large enough to make the government retreat its defensive line back to *higher* gold and silver prices.

Most market technicians/analysis are by definition "the crowd". Most are wrong at major turning points in markets, since "the crowd (in financial markets) is always wrong". Most are quite bearish on gold and silver right now. This is in fact quite bullish. Gold never broke its long term trend line that has been in place since the gold market started. Silver did not break its second more steep uptrend line let alone its most basic trend line since its bull market started.

Those long gold and silver have been waiting a long long long time for this correction to end (what? 15 months?) and to see the resumption of increasing prices. That time has come. 2005 is going to be a very good year for gold and silver bulls.

On America:

"Unconstitutional or not, the individual income tax (or any other tax, for that matter) will not by itself drive this country's economy to collapse tomorrow, next month, or next year. But the monetary and banking systems will--if not tomorrow, surely someday soon. And the resulting chaos will offer the occasion and excuse for the General Government to impose a police-state tyranny beside which the worst excesses of today's tax Gestapo will resemble Jeffersonian libertarianism."
- Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr., Ph.D., J.D., April 9, 2005

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