Friday, April 15, 2005


Dan Norcini over at just reported in on the COT (the Comex's Commitment of Traders report) numbers that just came out. For the first time in this bull gold market, for the last three weeks or so, the commerial funds (the US government's, the US Treasury's and the Fed's partners in crime) are increasing their short positions while the spec funds (the commercial funds opponents) are increasing their long positions while *gold moves basically sideways* in a relatively tight price range. All the rest of the time in this gold bull market gold would be either moving up or moving down in price. The commercial funds are pulling out the stops, doing whatever it takes to suppress the price of gold, not let it go above the 430/432 level. When gold gets down to the 425 level the spec funds step up to the plate and go long even more, and get out of old short positions which requires buying on their part.

It looks like the Cartel is particularly desperate at this point, that they particularly fear something out there. Maybe it has to do with gold and interest rate derivatives. Big holders of derivatives are companies like General Motors, JP Morgan Chase and others whose shares have been taking a dive these past weeks. Which side is going to win? Which way is gold going to break out of? Because of the rising demand for physical gold in the world, particularly the increasing amounts of buying in Turkey, the spec funds will win. Here's hoping. This relatively tight gold trading range can not last for long.

Here is a really good article by Edwin Vieira (author of Pieces of Eight and co-author of Cra$hmaker with Victor Sperandeo) about the future of the US. It is not pretty.
If you are an American, read it and weep.

"...a man may see straight and clearly and yet be-come impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do." - Jesse Livermore, in Edwin Lefevre's 1923 classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"


Anonymous said...

It seems to me that there is a careful buy gold side that is mopping up the supply vs the bad guys who keep trying to sell for as low a price they can get away with.

If every there was a battle seen on an live ticker, its the Kitco gold chart.

It won't last long *if* someone with serious fiat money gets on the buy gold side *and* takes delivery.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the careful buy gold side is Asia and the Middle East.