Wednesday, May 18, 2005

The US Dollar versus the rest of the world

For some time now China has been invited to send an observer to the G7 and IMF/World Bank annual get togethers. This year they didn't bother. The US is heading for skid row and (despite its nuclear weopons) is just simply becoming less important to the rest of the world. The rest of the world understands the US's future and it is not pretty. But, what do you expect for an attitude towards someone/some entity who has gotten out of control in taking on debt? Huge debt is debilitating. A huge debtor can become next to useless to others. Rather than being constantly drained by a huge debtor, the world is moving on, making other preparations.

The director of the G24 secretariat: "If developing nations are not given more say in global financial institutions, they will leave the fold of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.". "The current system of governance is completely out of line with economic realities. What is happening is that many countries are now moving away from these institutions.".

Well guess what? The USD is an important part of these obsolete institutions. The USD's future as the world's reserve currency does not look too good.

China's Hu Jintao and Indonesia's Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono have announced a pledge of stronger new security, economic and social/cultural ties. India has had a 4 day summit with Pakistan to advance trade and wrap up the problem with Kashmir. John Howard has been in China working on a trade agreement. The EU wants US nuclear weapons out of the EU. If the US refuses to do this, is the EU then occupied by the US? Russia has made alliances with China. China is making economic/business deals with parts of South America. China is making economic/business/military deals with most of Africa, 54 coutries, a strategically important raw materials continent. Germany is making deals with Russia, particularly about gas/oil. China is developing trade with the EU preparing for declining trade with the US. China, South Korea, and Japan (yes Japan, one of the few US best buddies left in the world) are starting an Asian monetary fund. The head of Taiwan's opposition party made an historic reconciliation trip to China and met with Hu Jintao. Taiwan knows it can not depend on the military protection of the US anymore nor the US's continuing purchases of Taiwan's products. China, South Korea and, yes, Japan (again) recently met in Istanbul for "Bolstering Asia's defences against attacks on its currencies". Now this is the Japanese Financial Minister talking: "Whatever happens, we need to promote financial cooperation even if there are issues". New FX in China: "The China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) said the new system hosted trading in the U.S. dollar against the euro, yen, Hong Kong dollar, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, plus the euro versus the yen.".

"The times, they are a changing." - Bob Dylan.

Oh, a while back there, Russia, the EU, China and India started working on putting up their own GPS system so they can have accurate weapons like the US has.

Asia has been making moves to protect itself from:
1.) declining purchases of its products by the US and
2.) from declining values of its USD denominated central bank reserves.

Most Americans do not understand the big picture let alone their own domestic economic/financial picture. It is going to be a rude awakening for them.

Sure, the US is the big bully on the block, but it is aging and has some serious weaknesses. Basically all of its troops are currently being used, so it would have a big problem trying to invade another country. Sure, it can lob plenty of military bombs into countries but there are countries that can lob back financial bombs that would cause political, economic, financial havoc in the US which would weaken its military. Basically, the US is between a rock and a hard place, like its central bank. Wait till Americans themselves find this out.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

What if they don't really learn anything from the paper example, and just move to the next disaster (the very popular Euro)? It seems likely as a choice compared to anything sensible, which means (for those who can time them -- ie insiders!) a crash with a run-up followed by ANOTHER crash some indefinite time later (and perhaps, finally, then a run-up in precious-metals prices if people finally learn that nothing-else is money?). Well, it could be, anyway...